Semi Random Thinking (whatever that means)... I know my goal is to make this commish thing as easy as possible (and I've mostly succeeded) but that doesn't mean I don't think about how it can be tweaked. The bit of work I did last week with bye-week scoring got me thinking. What if I shook up our schedule and moved our season-ending division games off the 6-team bye weeks? Those division games are usually crucial to playoff hopes and if teams can have access to more of their rosters, why not?
It would mean I'd hold off on finalizing our schedule until the NFL releases theirs but that usually occurs around their draft week so it wouldn't be a big deal. The NFL has moved those six-team bye weeks around over the years. This year they come up in weeks 12 & 14 which sucks.
What I'd do is place our division games as close to the end of our season as I could with a priority of using 0-team bye weeks, then 2-team bye weeks, and so on. I'd have a guideline that our division games would run in the last five weeks of the season. Then I'd place them in the schedule according to that 0-2-4-6 priority I just mentioned.
The idea is food for thought. It may not be worth the little effort it entails but it's a tweak that might be worth kicking around. Ending our regular season with the division game block is a longstanding tradition and god knows I dig tradition. But we've blown up more than a few league traditions in the last decade and we're still standing.: :shrug:: I would appreciate your thoughts.
TE Fever.. speaking of traditions, when we added a dedicated TE slot I figured it would alter roster strategy a bit. And it has. Has anyone else noticed how many TE moves we've been making? Seems like a research project in the making.
And finally... if the playoffs started this week the Nats(#1) and Flyers(#2) would be the teams with byes, The Pirates would be seeded #3, and the Holes, Bombers, and Blizzard would be the Wild Cards. Tiebreaks for division rankings are head-to-head followed by PPG, Division record, PPG in Division games. You can see all the tiebreak procedures here.
We are on grandparent duty so that is all I have time for this week.
And some Dylan plus Clapton. Dylan never sings a song the same way twice.
Finally for this week...my favorite singer is doing my favorite song.
Randomness in a string... I think we are at a sweet spot regarding roster size. 17 players, given the parameters of our lineup configurations and the way bye weeks are running in the NFL, seem right to me. I haven't checked on the number of waiver pickups but I'd be willing to bet we are ahead of prior seasons. Some of that is due to injuries no doubt. But I feel like there is more talent on the open market. More claims = more fun as far as I'm concerned.
Another factor in the number of claims is that more teams are still in the hunt than is normally the case. I'm typing this before Week 11 is done but looking at the standings thru 10 weeks compared to last season is eye-opening. We have two teams more than three games off the division lead. In 2023 we had five.
League Things... 'Live by Thursday Night, Die by Thursday Night' I turned on the Philly-Washington game and Jimmy O had 15 points against me with his two players. The game was winding down so I went to bed feeling pretty good. Wake up Friday morning and the holes have 33 points. Apparently, while I was sleeping, Barkley ran for 900 yards and two TDs in a couple of seconds. Oh well.
In poker, they say "All you need is a chip and a chair." In the Hughes League, you need four wins and the division games coming up. Three teams in the last two seasons have made the playoffs with 7-7 records.
Things I Thought I Thought... But It Appears Was Wrong About... I looked back over the past four seasons (2021-2024 to date) and checked how bye weeks affected scoring. The chart below (you'll need to click to enlarge) is fairly self-explanatory. I'm trying to figure out what to make of it. For simplicity, all scores and scoring averages are rounded to the nearest whole number. Make of it what you will.
This and That... I had a couple of discussions last week about Keepers—well, one discussion and one passing mention. Here's the deal. I can't see going back to a 'keeper' system. I'm fine with redrafting... it's simpler and less work. I liked our previous systems but any kind of keeper deal inherently makes it harder to bounce back from a bad run.
Also, you can't switch to keepers without a year's notice. IOW you have to draft with the knowledge that you could keep these guys for the future. And we didn't do that this year. The bottom line is that we are unlikely to change anything significant anytime soon.
I tried to update the lineup data (linked in the EHFL Links module) with 2024 data. I was thinking of doing an update each week to view throughout the season. I also wanted to clean up some misspelled names on the Hughes Bowl Champs Lineup page. But the hosting site for these files is quirky. Reliable, but quirky. I gave up on the idea but had problems restoring the old files. I think they are all in place but I can't guarantee it. That's what I get for not leaving well enough alone.
My big crusade over the last few years has been to try and make things easier on myself. Another epic failure on my part. LOL
UPDATE... Looks like the original files are in place but I *think* that is not the latest Rules page. No big deal because nothing has been changed since I last updated it in the off-season.
That Thursday Game... We were out and about Thursday Night and I only saw the last drive of the Ravens-Bengals game. I tend to forget Thursday night games and I didn't check the numbers until I turned on the game. As the Bengals drove down the field I thought it would be funny if Burrow threw one more to Chase. And damned if he didn't. Oh, and the Bengals got jobbed on the two-point try but that's neither here nor there.
Friday morning, me being me, I checked to see if anyone had ever lost a game with a 50-point scorer in his lineup. (OK, Chase had 49.90 but let's not quibble over 0.1 points.) The answer is 'no'. I did uncover a couple of interesting facts. In 2018 Drew Brees scored 53 points for the Blizzard (still the points record) and they beat the Holes. In that Week 8 game Jimmy had THREE 30+ scorers and the final was 155-151 Bliz! Jimmy's 151 total was the second-highest score for the season. That's hard to fathom.
Now that I’m not an owner* (being an unpaid team consultant has it’s rewards) it’s easy for me to look at the sometimes crazy situations brought about by the quirks and heartaches of fantasy sports and, well, not laugh exactly, but think ‘Better you than me, Bro’.
Case One: Week Six, Giants versus Bombers. On the surface a low scoring but otherwise routine 59-54 win for the Bombers. But take a closer look. The Giants got 22 from Ryan Tannehill but the rest of the starters were in single digits. That’s not easy in a PPR league. But checking the bench tells a different tale. Each available bench player (Matt Cassell was on bye) outscored the starters at their spot. Rick had 157 points on his bench and a Potential score of 142 points. Had both teams played their best lineups the Giants win 142-70. Dude.
Case Two: Week Eight, Blizzard versus Holes. Holes score 151 points which sets a team record. It’s five points higher than their previous best of 146 that they scored in Week 7. And they lost. 151 points and they f’ing lost! The Bliz also used that game to set a team record and scored 155. So the Holes score 297 points in a span of about 8 days and come out of it with a 1-1 record.! Better you than me, Jimmy.
That game, by the way, is the highest scoring game in history. The 306 combined points eclipsed the previous record of 299 set in Week Three’s Blizzard versus Strawmenn game.
*= At the time James was running the Flyers day-to-day. My job was to second-guess him.
Chase's Thursday night performance, under our previous 'full PPR' scoring, would have been a 55-point night and set the all-time Hughes record. As it stands his is the top receiver score in our history. Counterpoint: If Tee Higgins plays there is no way Chase has that much volume. I guess I finally got some benefit from the Year Of The Limping Wideout.
Probably a good thing, too, because the rest of my crew was rather mediocre. Chase has a 'normal' game and it is a nervous Sunday Night.
League State... Wins across the board for the Lombardi guys. All hands, even the Legends, are still on deck there. Quick research note: the team that posted (or tied for) the best regular season record has won the Hughes Bowl 13 times in 43 seasons. That is barely 30%. Ask me again why I'm not feeling very confident... looking at the Barenholtz and Kuhlmann there is only one team (the Strawmenn) more than one game away from first place. Every time I've thought a certain team was a 'sure bet' to be the leading title contender they've fallen off the pace.
One more week before we begin to navigate the second round of division games. I have a feeling I won't have the energy to
Random thought: The Week 14 byes will play a big factor in who advances to the playoffs and where they land.
Lineup & Opponents Power Rank Data Update: Through 10 weeks here is the breakdown...
RB-WR-TE W-L PPG
1-4-1 9-5 97.4
1-3-1 0-1 83.0
2-2-2 0-4 88.8
2-3-1 32-32 99.9
3-2-1 19-17 94.4
No team has used 1rb 2wr 3te configuration in the two years we have had the 2 Flex player option. Although I did give it some thought a few weeks back.
Here is the updated Power Rank for the teams you face down the stretch. Click to expand.
It's pretty easy to ignore your team's issues when you win. But when you win with a half-ass total and a bunch of luck you become aware that a shiny record doesn't mean all that much. I'll leave it at that for now.
(Editor's Note...I typed that last night when it appeared I would slide by with a score in the low 70s. Turns out some late action made the point moot in my case but it still applies as a general fantasy football axiom. Dave will agree as noted below.)
Stuff: I had an idea as I was walking James' dog the other morning. How about finding out every team's strength of schedule for the remainder of the season? I put together a spreadsheet that averages the Power Rank of each club's remaining opponents.
The MFL system provides two different Power Rank lists but I stuck with the primary one. (You can see their formula here.)Once upon a time, I had my own PR system that I posted in the Hughes News Stat Sheet. It was back in our TD-only scoring days. I know a couple of factors were wins, scoring above or below the League Average, and a few other variables that I can't remember. I need to go back through my archives and dig that up.
First of all, here is the Power Rank explainer from MFL (click to enlarge, then hit your back button to return):
And here is the current Strength of Schedule for each team for the rest of 2024 (click to enlarge then hit your back button to return).
It's not sorted in any order besides being grouped by division. And, to be honest, it probably has no real meaning other than to satisfy my curiosity. Bear in mind that a lot of values used to make the PR are influenced by bye weeks. And it doesn't consider players coming and going from injuries. For example, Chris McCaffery, the #1 pick, will be available for the Rbacks soon, maybe this week (until he has another hangnail 🙄).
So make of that what you will.
League doings and things like that: Speaking of the Rbacks...they probably had their season saved when the MNF game was tied as regulation time dwindled away last night. They were behind the Heroes but the OT gave Kareem Hunt that chance at a TD and he came through for Dave. Falling to 3-6 would have put a crimp in any shot at the playoffs for that bunch...the wide receiver carnage continues unabated...looks like I should have held on to Cade Otten. He's acting like the second coming of John Mackey. Then again, if the Bucs weren't reduced to recruiting wideouts from the stands he wouldn't be all that.
We again have a bit of separation in a couple of divisions as the Lombardi clubs trailing the Flyers fall a game further back. The Pirates broke their losing streak and they and the Bliz are destined for a battle in the remaining weeks. The Giants are 5-4 and just a game back in the Barenholtz despite being last in points scored. Then again they have had the second fewest points scored against them.
The fewest wins by a defending Hughes champ is four, last 'achieved' by the 2007 Sticks. The Strawmenn have a chance to set the new standard. Somewhere on this computer, I have a copy of Fantasy Pros post-draft League Analyser results which had Padilla's crew third IIRC. Just goes to show ya, well, something... I checked scoring versus last season and this year's average team total points is about five points per team higher. I also noticed that the Legends were leading the league in points thru Week 9 of 2023. Redrafting makes results more volatile year-to-year for sure.
That's all I got. Here are a few tunes I really enjoy. And a few pics of a cutie!
Ellis does library time when she's here with us on Wednesdays. Last week there was a set of twin boys there, Easton and Weston. I kid you not!
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