It's been a while since we have had the #1 seed facing #2 in a Hughes Bowl. In fact, we have to go back to 2013 when the #1 Bombers swept aside the #2 Blizzard to find our last 'Top Two' Hughes Bowl Matchup.
Three, four, shut the door.
Both winners came back from early deficits and used some big performances to close out their wins.
Five, six, I pick the Sticks.
Okay, I'm stretching with this one, but 'six' and 'Nats' don't rhyme. TBH, I have no idea who will win this game, None. It's been a year of unpredictability. Why would it stop now?
Seven, eight, don't be late.
Don't be late signing in to the Second Season contest this year. Check out the details below. (Yeah, I was going strong until I got to this one.)
Nine, ten, a big fat hen.
About here, I realize this was a bad idea, but I'm committed. And I did consider 'A big, Nat hen' but that seemed dumb, even for me. Lucky for you, I'm done.
The Semis, in brief... It looked good for the Legends when lunatic manchild Puka Nacua went off for 40+ points on Thursday night, but they couldn't sustain above-average output while the Nats spent Sunday breaking out the heavy hitters. The result was a Nats lead going into Monday that Lincoln had no chance of denting. The final was a stroll for Dan as he won by over 35 points. If he can maintain anything near his Week 16 output, he's got a very good chance of getting the Nats a seventh Hughes Bowl crown.
Things were just a touch more dicey for the Sticks in their win over the Blizzard. The top-seeded club held a decent lead after Sunday, and with McCaffrey and Taylor still to come, it appeared that Paz had little hope, even with Purdy left to play. But for just a bit in that Colts-Niners matchup, I had to back away from my keyboard. With Purdy racking up points at a fierce clip, there was suddenly a chance my Nats versus Sticks research would become moot (To say nothing of that Hughes Nursery Rhyme!). But McCaffrey wasn't going to let that happen. He grabbed a couple of Purdy's endzone tosses, and with them, he also grabbed the brass ring for Keith.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a Clash of Titans on our hands. Both clubs went 11-3, and they were the top two scoring clubs this season, separated by less than ONE point! Here we go to:
Hughes Bowl 45!
As seen in the graphic, we have the top two seeds squaring off this year. That's a rarity. I dug into HB results going back to 2004, the start of our Performance Scoring Era, and came up with this chart (click it to expand it):
If you're scoring at home, you will see that only three times over the last 21 Hughes Bowls (team names in blue) have we had #1 vs #2, and only in 2013 did the #1 beat the #2. And while I was counting shit, I went and highlighted the games that were, in theory anyway, 'upsets'. Those games, with red seeding numbers in the chart, were won by the lower seed.
Now, something we all know is in play here. Seeds are frequently a 'false' rating. Time and again, the #4 seed finished second in their division but were a 'better' team than one, if not both of the other division winners. It happens. The Flyers were one catch over the course of the season (0.5 points) away from being the #1 seed last year, but ultimately finished as the #4 seed. Hell, if I dug a bit, I could find a #5 that was a stronger club than a #3, but you take what falls your way and go with it.
The table below shows how each bye slot fared in Hughes Bowl games since 2004. Note that we had a #7 seed (the Bliz) in 2022, which was due to me adding an additional team to the postseason. Interestingly, the #3 seed had made more HBs than any other spot. And 3/4s have as many teams in the title game (17 total) as 1/2.
Make of all that what you will.
Let's look at the history of the two teams over the years in postseason play. First, separately:
The Sticks are making their fifth Hughes Bowl game and are coming in with a 3-1 mark in their previous title games. Their last was in 2021, which was their only Hughes Bowl loss.
The Sticks have played 27 postseason games since their founding in 1984, and are 15-12.
The Nats are playing in their 13th Hughes Bowl, breaking a tie for the most appearances with the Flyers. They are 6-6 on our big stage and looking to reverse last season's HB loss and break their two-game losing streak in title contests. Here is how they have fared:
They are 25-19 in 44 Postseason games through this past weekend. Oh, and a win (their 7th) would set the standard for franchises, again breaking a tie with the Flyers, for most championships.
Something that surprised me a great deal is that these two teams have only met twice previously in playoff games. In 1986, Hughes Bowl 6, the Sticks beat the Nats, 47-40. It wasn't until 2015 that they met again. In a Wildcard encounter that year, the Sticks prevailed by a single point, 106-105. Counting those two games, the Nationals hold a 26-17-2 lead over the Sticks in our history.
The Postseason Contest!
I re-upped our site for a 25/26 NFL Playoff contest. Check your email for an invite, or just go to the site directly at this link: 2025/2026 Second Season.
The league will work as it did last time. Details are right there on the front of the site. I will 'pay' a small bonus in 2016 Waiver cash to everyone who participates, in addition to the prize winnings for the top finishers. You will be able to select your roster as soon as the NFL regular season wraps.
It takes just a couple of minutes to pick your players, and after that, there is nothing you need to do. There's no reason to skip this.
Blizzard, Legends Advance To Semi-Finals In (More Or Less) Easy Fashion!
It was a weekend of upsets...or was it? The Blizzard's win over the Holes was unexpected, if you ignore their big Week 14 revival. Mike's crew scored early and often in a 44+ point Wildcard victory over the favored Holes. But if you look closer at the Blizzard's season, you'll see that they were 7-0 at one point and seemingly unstoppable. So the talent was there. What followed that hot streak was a series of bad breaks/close losses/player slumps/unlucky matchups. They now appear to be back in 'first half' form and have definitely earned their way to the place they are in, the Semi-final round.
They now face the #1-seeded Sticks. You'd usually expect a clear favorite in a #1 versus a #5 matchup. But this one is more intriguing. The Sticks' two 'horses', McCaffery and Taylor, have looked somewhat human the last couple of weeks. The gap between the two clubs may be back to where it was early in the season. I'm out of the prediction business, just let me say that this one bears watching.
On the other side of the bracket, we saw one of those games where one club jumped to a huge start and then applied the brakes. The Heroes led the Legends 70-something to 6 after the early window on Sunday. Then James' guys got cranked up, and by the time the Sunday night game started, the Heroes were done, and the Legends were within range. JJ McCarthy (of all people) supplied the winning points, and Darren Waller used Monday night to rub salt in the Heroes' wound.
So, hey, Nats and Legends...Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you. This one hinges on which version of the Legends shows up this week, the mid-season crew that vaulted from the depths of the Lombardi Division's mediocrity to take command, or the early- and late-season bunch that struggled for points? Either way, they will have their hands full with the steady Nationals, who have their eyes on a return trip to fantasy football's biggest stage, The Hughes Bowl.
Our 2025 Semi-Finals:
I mentioned this in an email, but it bears repeating...I was hearing from other commissioners that SOME league sites are being hit with pop-up ads on the scoring page. They don't appear to be anything malicious; they are simply the ones being fed by MFL that are normally seen by owners in leagues without custom coding to avoid them. They are displayed on the lineup page when a user attempts to close the page, as well as a white, opaque bar at the bottom of the page with ad content. If you see them on our site, I'd appreciate a heads-up.
Let's Try Something...
I remember this from back when I had a Twitter account. Ever wanted to ask the Commish something? Well, here's your chance. Fire a query my way in the comments, via email, or as a text, and I will answer it here. Haven't you ever wanted to know why I'm usually in a bar on Sunday mornings when some folks are in church? LOL
Simply the best.
Raul Malo died last week after a battle with colon cancer. I've mentioned previously that he was our favorite artist. We saw him perform countless times and were looking forward to shows in October and on NYE in Austin. But we've decided that we will watch a recorded Mavericks show and raise a glass to RM instead. His voice, songwriting, and showmanship will not soon be replaced.
It turns out that Rick was right...there was no need to angst over all the possible permutations as the Week 14 games approached. The smart move would have been to just let the games play out and then figure out who made it in. It played out without me having to parse WTF happens when FIVE teams finish at 7-7, etc. Much of it was a foregone conclusion by the time the Sunday Night game came to an end. Let's look at the teams that made the playoffs, what they did to get there, and a few trivial notes on each. Starting with the Bye Teams....
#1 Sticks 11-3: They chose Week 14 to lay an egg, but it had no bearing on their season. Having beaten the Nats earlier in the year, they were guaranteed the top seed going into the week and, TBH, look even better with the Colts now having to rely more on Jonathan Taylor. A superb bounce-back year for Keith after back-to-back 4-10 campaigns.
Last Hughes Bowl was in 2021; Last title was 2017
#2 Nationals: 11-3: They stayed on the Holes' heels most of the year and jumped them in the last weeks of the season. The loss to the Sticks in Week Six (by less than six points) cost them the top seed. They are looking to return to the Hughes Bowl in consecutive years.
Last Hughes Bowl was last season; Last title was back in 2004.
Now the teams squaring off this week in the Wildcard round....
#3 Legends 8-6: The James Gang had a slow start, a hot midseason, and a slow finish. However, they did enough to secure the Lombardi, including holding off the Bombers in Week 14. As a result, they will face their divisional rival, the Heroes, this week.
The Legends have no Hughes Bowls in their history, but James guided the Flyers to title game appearances in 2017 and 2018.
#4 Holes 9-5: They led the Barenholtz more than they trailed, but dropped to the second spot late in the year. Despite that, they remain a serious title contender with the third-highest PPG (by a bunch).
Last Hughes Bowl was in 2023, and their last Hughes Bowl win was in 2018.
#5 Blizzard 8-6: They finally ended their death spiral in Week 14 with a win to clinch a postseason spot and avoid what would have been a nosedive for the ages...7-0 to 7-7 and likely out of the playoffs. But the postseason wipes the slate clean, and they had a nice final week scoring bump, so anything is still possible.
Last Hughes Bowl AND last championship title was in 2022.
#6 Heroes 7-7: They were 2-6 after eight games and rallied to finish at 7-7, capping the year with an explosive showing to kill the Flyers' hopes and wrap up this slot. That they actually had a chance to win the division (with a Lincoln loss to the Bombers) is kind of mindblowing.
Their last Hughes Bowl came in 2006, and their last league championship was back in 1994. In case you were wondering... no team has won a Hughes Bowl after a .500 season. OTOH... after the wacky season we just experienced, would it surprise you at all if the Heroes went from 2-6 to a crown?
Well, there is one thing I have in common with Ed Hughes: we both have a great view of the action from the sidelines. Of course, Coach was getting paid. BTW... that photo above is the latest addition to my Hughes memorabilia collection. The back has a date of 11/28/71 and a notation (caption?) reading Target For Critics. The photographer is Bill Clough, a Houston-based freelancer at the time. He is still active in the field of photography after 60 years in the biz.
Things to remember in the Postseason...
Teams get 'locked down' as they are eliminated.
Playoff lineups require a tiebreak player chosen from non-starters.
Owners are awarded a $10 waiver cash bonus each week they advance. That includes the two 'bye' owners this week.
Waiver Calendar remains the same until the Week of the Hughes Bowl (Week 17). There will be blind bid waivers processed as usual that Wednesday night at 9 pm. But the next morning's FCFS session will run through 5 p.m. Central time on the following Monday evening, instead of closing on Sunday at Noon Central. That eliminates the possibility of a HB team getting caught short with a late player scratch.
And, Booker T. and the MGs with the late, great Steve Cropper on guitar. RIP to the legend.
Navigating The Permutations... I used to spend a day with a pad of paper, several pencils, and a shitload of coffee figuring out all the playoff seeding possibilities as the season drew to a close. I mentioned in one of my preseason nostalgia posts that I'd take a sometimes day off and hibernate at a coffee shop or McDonald's to put in the work.
After the weekend just past, the picture for 2025 has become both clearer and more convoluted. Let's try to wade through what we know.
The easy stuff...The Sticks are the #1 seed. Even a loss and a Nats win to put them at 11-3 wouldn't change that, thanks to the Sticks' early-season win over Dan's crew.
The Nats are the likely #2 seed. They have a game lead now over the Holes in the Barenholtz. Those two clubs meet this week. The Holes could win to tie the Nats at 10-4 and gain a split in their two matchups, but the Holes are 70 points behind the Nats for the season, and erasing that seems highly unlikely.
If the Holes don't climb that huge mountain, they will be the #4 seed. If they do, the Nats are the #4 seed.
The Legends, currently back in a tailspin, would win the Lombardi and the #3 seed by beating the Bombers.
The Blizzard, currently in a ...well, calling it a 'tailspin' is being kind...can grab a Wildcard spot (the #5 seed) with a win over the Pirates. That would put them at 8-6 and separate them from the other WC contenders. So we know for sure:
The Sticks are the #1 seed
The Nats and Holes will fill the #2 and #4 slots
The Legends take their division (and the #3 seed) with a win, no matter what else happens in the Lombardi. They cannot get a bye.
A Blizzard win gets them the #5 slot.
Now, for the hard stuff... and here is where the world gets cloudy. There is a chance that we have 5 teams finish at 7-7, all trying to fit into two available playoff spots:
The winner of the Flyers vs Heroes game
Legends AND Bombers (if Bombers win the matchup)
Blizzard (if they lose to the Pirates)
and the Giants (if they beat the Rbacks)
I'm not sure I have the time or energy to go through all the possibilities before posting this. But I may wrestle with something simplified and send it out this week. Meanwhile, if you have a vested interest, you may want to check the tiebreak rules, which are linked on the right and on the league site. I looked at them recently and saw that some of the regs would not apply to our league. I'm putting 'make the tiebreak rules simple' down on my between-season to-do list.
Basic to the rules is that division ties are broken first, head-to-head is the first tie break, and points scored are second. Again, I direct you to the posted rules for all the details. Below is a table showing the involved teams' point totals through 13 weeks.
If anyone wants to tackle all or part of the possible outcomes, have at it!
Random Thoughts on Week 13... It's probably too much research for me to take on at the moment, but I have a hard time believing that any team in our history has gotten off to a 7-0 start and then failed to make the playoffs. The Blizzard may be in that club if they can't beat Portland... on the flip side of that, check out the Week Seven standings. The Heroes, Giants, and Flyers were a combined 5-16. FIVE AND SIXTEEN! That's a .238 winning percentage. Today, all three have a legit shot at the playoffs. As Chuck Berry said, It Goes To Show You Never Can Tell!
Sticks (.51)
Nationals (.49)
Holes
Your Guess is...
...As Good As Mine
Also receiving votes: Manchester United, Nebraska Volleyball, Andres Borregales
Not receiving votes: Manchester City, Nebraska Football, Younghoe Koo
.png){kind=small}
.png)
.png)
.png)