The Hughes News: And So It Goes!

Navigating The Permutations... I used to spend a day with a pad of paper, several pencils, and a shitload of coffee figuring out all the playoff seeding possibilities as the season drew to a close. I mentioned in one of my preseason nostalgia posts that I'd take a sometimes day off and hibernate at a coffee shop or McDonald's to put in the work.

After the weekend just past, the picture for 2025 has become both clearer and more convoluted. Let's try to wade through what we know.

The easy stuff...The Sticks are the #1 seed. Even a loss and a Nats win to put them at 11-3 wouldn't change that, thanks to the Sticks' early-season win over Dan's crew.

The Nats are the likely #2 seed. They have a game lead now over the Holes in the Barenholtz. Those two clubs meet this week. The Holes could win to tie the Nats at 10-4 and gain a split in their two matchups, but the Holes are 70 points behind the Nats for the season, and erasing that seems highly unlikely.

If the Holes don't climb that huge mountain, they will be the #4 seed. If they do, the Nats are the #4 seed.

The Legends, currently back in a tailspin, would win the Lombardi and the #3 seed by beating the Bombers.

The Blizzard, currently in a ...well, calling it a 'tailspin' is being kind...can grab a Wildcard spot (the #5 seed) with a win over the Pirates. That would put them at 8-6 and separate them from the other WC contenders. So we know for sure:

The Sticks are the #1 seed
The Nats and Holes will fill the #2 and #4 slots
The Legends take their division (and the #3 seed) with a win, no matter what else happens in the Lombardi. They cannot get a bye.
A Blizzard win gets them the #5 slot.

Now, for the hard stuff... and here is where the world gets cloudy. There is a chance that we have 5 teams finish at 7-7, all trying to fit into two available playoff spots:

The winner of the Flyers vs Heroes game
Legends AND Bombers (if Bombers win the matchup)
Blizzard (if they lose to the Pirates)
and the Giants (if they beat the Rbacks)

I'm not sure I have the time or energy to go through all the possibilities before posting this. But I may wrestle with something simplified and send it out this week. Meanwhile, if you have a vested interest, you may want to check the tiebreak rules, which are linked on the right and on the league site. I looked at them recently and saw that some of the regs would not apply to our league. I'm putting 'make the tiebreak rules simple' down on my between-season to-do list.

Basic to the rules is that division ties are broken first, head-to-head is the first tie break, and points scored are second. Again, I direct you to the posted rules for all the details. Below is a table showing the involved teams' point totals through 13 weeks.

If anyone wants to tackle all or part of the possible outcomes, have at it!

Random Thoughts on Week 13... It's probably too much research for me to take on at the moment, but I have a hard time believing that any team in our history has gotten off to a 7-0 start and then failed to make the playoffs. The Blizzard may be in that club if they can't beat Portland... on the flip side of that, check out the Week Seven standings. The Heroes, Giants, and Flyers were a combined 5-16. FIVE AND SIXTEEN! That's a .238 winning percentage. Today, all three have a legit shot at the playoffs. As Chuck Berry said, It Goes To Show You Never Can Tell!